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I have only one counterargument, and it's a huge one:

The USSR DID break up. All the arguments you just made would argue against the USSR breaking up. But it did break up.

It broke up because central power had been seized, during the coup against Gorbachev, by a faction which was considered unacceptable by the vast majority, including nearly all the SSR leaders in the individual SSRs.

It many not be remembered, but the SSRs immediately organized a bunch of mutual-aid treaty organizations after they broke up (including the CIS).

If the same thing happens in the US -- if a faction which is completely unacceptable to the leadership and population of enough states seizes power at the national level in an essentially illegitimate fashion -- the US could break up for ***exactly the same reason***. (And then probably form new mutual-aid treaty organizations, and possibly re-combine later.)

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